Marc Chaikin’s #1 AI Stock for 2027

Three weeks ago, OpenAI walked into fundraising talks asking for $1.4 trillion. On Thursday, CNBC reported it is closing in on a deal at $1.25 trillion. The round, of up to $30 billion, is led by UAE investors and Coatue, and the price sits $150 billion below what the company presented to backers earlier in October. The question worth arguing is whether that gap is a negotiating rounding error or an early sign that the AI financing story is beginning to strain at the seams.

The Bull Case

The most straightforward defense is that $1.25 trillion is still an enormous number. It is also meaningfully higher than the valuation OpenAI reached in its March 2026 funding round, even if the exact percentage depends on whether you compare pre-money to post-money valuations. A company that adds hundreds of billions in implied value inside seven months does not look like a deflating asset.

The revenue momentum reinforces that view. OpenAI’s annualized revenue was about $50 billion as of late September 2026, according to the Financial Times and subsequent reporting. That is not a decelerating business. OpenAI has also told investors it expects to reach or exceed $70 billion in annualized revenue by the end of 2026.

The source of the new capital also matters. Sovereign wealth funds and institutional backers are committing sustained investment, and the UAE’s prominent involvement signals the region’s push to anchor itself in the global AI supply chain. OpenAI is also negotiating a separate commercial deal that would secure more computing capacity from the UAE. This is not hot money chasing a trend; it is strategic capital with a 10-year horizon.

The financing is being positioned as an “opportunistic” bridge ahead of a potential IPO expected in 2027, which means the valuation is not the ceiling. It is the price private investors accept before public markets set a new one.

The Bear Case

The bears start with the markdown itself. Bloomberg reported in early October that OpenAI was presenting $1.4 trillion to prospective investors as a set price, even though it had not yet chosen a lead investor. That approach is unusual for a private round, where investors would normally propose and negotiate terms. According to the Financial Times, OpenAI encountered investor resistance to that earlier valuation target. When a company trying to set its own non-negotiable price ends up cutting it by $150 billion, that is not a routine closing concession.

The broader AI financing climate adds context the bulls should not ignore. CoreWeave shares fell about 16% in a single session as yields on its 2031 and 2032 bonds rose close to 15%, amid fears tech firms are borrowing too heavily for AI. The yield on CoreWeave’s 9.625% bond due 2032 rose above 15%, with the bond trading in the high-70s cents on the dollar. Bond markets, which tend to be less forgiving than venture investors, are demanding near-junk compensation to hold paper backed by the very infrastructure OpenAI depends on.

That was the backdrop when the OpenAI deal landed Thursday. The Nasdaq Composite dropped 2.6% that day, posting its worst one-day percentage drop since June 5, after Meta Platforms’ plans to boost capital spending reignited fears that tech firms will issue more debt to finance the AI buildout. Raising money into that session is not evidence of strength.

Meta’s spending plans were the proximate trigger for that selloff. Meta’s willingness to commit up to $200 billion on AI infrastructure before it has proof the technology works is the clearest example of how debt-financed ambition is now moving markets.

Then there is the cost side. OpenAI’s financials remain limited in public detail, but even sympathetic accounts of its trajectory concede the same point: revenue growth does not eliminate the enormous and ongoing costs of compute, talent, and infrastructure. Even at a $50 billion run rate, the gap between what OpenAI earns and what it spends can remain wide.

Where the Evidence Leads

The $150 billion cut is real pushback, not arithmetic. OpenAI presented the earlier $1.4 trillion figure as a set price in a market where investors normally negotiate. The fact that they did negotiate, and won, matters. That said, a company growing revenue quickly with sovereign capital prepared to write $10 billion checks is not a company in distress. The CoreWeave bond signal is worth watching closely: at close to 15% yield, every new data center has to work much harder just to cover its interest bill. If that pressure migrates from infrastructure operators to model developers, the calculus changes.

The bond market’s verdict on CoreWeave points to a broader cost structure. Vertiv and Cameco show where the AI infrastructure build becomes a physical, capital-intensive constraint — the layer between a model developer’s ambitions and the power and cooling that must actually exist.

Final Verdict

The bull case is currently stronger, but less comfortable than it was a month ago. The valuation cut is a yellow flag, not a red one. Investors should track two things: whether OpenAI’s annualized revenue continues its pace toward $70 billion by year-end, and whether CoreWeave’s bond yields stabilize or keep rising. The first would validate the price. The second would tell you what the market really thinks the AI buildout costs to finance.