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A Dormant Copper Mine Reawakens

Bull Bear Daily October 15, 2026 7 minutes read
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A note from our friends at Resource Stock Digest(ad)

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Bonus Article

China’s Stimulus Is Too Small. Monday’s GDP Will Tell Us How Small.

Speaking in Bangkok on Thursday at the IMF/World Bank Annual Meetings, Krishna Srinivasan, director of the fund’s Asia and Pacific Department, delivered an unusually pointed verdict on Beijing’s economic management. China’s yuan is undervalued in real terms because of the country’s flagging domestic economy, and steps to revive demand have fallen far short of what’s needed. Reuters reported Thursday that the fund put a number on it: the IMF’s latest assessment indicated yuan undervaluation in the range of 17.3% to 25.3%, with a midpoint of 21.3%.

Srinivasan called for “a lot more” fiscal stimulus “in the near term until the economy reflates,” describing an economy “teetering on deflation.” Reuters also reported him saying, “Most of the growth in China is explained by external demand, and so the rebalancing, which we’ve been talking about for some time, has not really materialized.” Monday’s Q3 GDP print, due from the National Bureau of Statistics on October 19, will be the first hard test of whether that verdict holds.

The Bull Case: Enough Is Already Working

The IMF’s deflation warning runs into a complication: China’s PPI inflation hit its highest level since mid-2022, rising to 5.0% year-on-year in September, while CPI came in at 0.9%, up from 0.8% in August, according to China’s National Bureau of Statistics and Reuters. PPI has risen steadily this year, helping break China’s multi-year deflationary streak as surging global demand for computing equipment spurred sharp price increases in their related components. An economy genuinely teetering on deflation does not typically post factory-gate price growth at a four-year high.

High-frequency data for Q3 adds nuance. State media, citing the State Information Center under the National Development and Reform Commission, reported that offline consumption payments in China rose 2.6% year-on-year in the third quarter, a pace 0.7 percentage points faster than the second quarter. The same report said capital investment in frontier sectors such as artificial intelligence and humanoid robots surged 184.1% year-on-year in the third quarter. September trade data showed exports rising 36.3% year-on-year, far exceeding forecasts, according to China’s customs data and Reuters. Bulls on China’s trajectory argue that Beijing’s targeted September stimulus package, combined with this export surge, may already be doing enough to hold the economy at a defensible growth rate.

The Bear Case: Growth on One Engine

The IMF’s critique is structural, not cyclical, and the data supports it. Strong overseas demand continues to support the world’s second-largest economy, while sluggish consumer spending and property investment highlight the challenges of meeting the government’s full-year growth target of 4.5% to 5%. That is the same imbalance Srinivasan flagged in Bangkok.

In Q2, GDP growth of 4.3% was below consensus forecasts and was widely described as the weakest quarterly reading since late 2022. Exports held up; investment and household demand did not. The IMF also said China’s property crisis has “lingered for too long,” reiterating proposals to rehabilitate the real estate sector and build social safety nets.

The IMF’s World Economic Outlook projects China’s growth to slow to 4.5% this year from 5.0% in 2025, with a further deceleration to 4.0% in 2027, as reported this week around the Bangkok meetings. Capital Economics also cautioned that the PPI surge may not last, expecting factory-gate prices to slip back into deflation and consumer price inflation to return near zero next year.

What Monday Has to Show

Quarterly data due on Monday will help policymakers decide whether to take further action after delivering a “targeted stimulus” package in September, according to BofA’s chief economist for greater China, Helen Qiao. A Caixin survey of economists puts Q3 year-on-year growth at 4.4%, accelerating 0.1 percentage point from Q2. Prediction markets are in the same zip code, with the current frontrunner outcome being a 4.3% to 4.6% range at roughly a high-60s to low-70s implied probability.

That is the number that settles the argument, at least provisionally. A reading below 4.3% would validate the IMF’s case almost entirely and force Beijing’s hand on a larger fiscal response. A print at or above 4.6% would give the bulls cover and confirm Beijing’s own view that targeted measures suffice. The more likely outcome, a narrow beat in the 4.4% range driven by exports, is actually the most dangerous for markets: good enough to delay bigger stimulus, not strong enough to disprove the IMF’s structural diagnosis.

The policy lever Beijing and Washington reach for matters as much as the GDP print itself. Tariff relief on $30 billion of goods leaves the deeper constraint intact if semiconductor restrictions remain in place.

Where the Evidence Leads

The IMF is correct on the structural point. An economy running 36% export growth alongside sub-1% retail sales growth is not rebalancing; it is substituting. The yuan undervaluation call follows directly from that imbalance, and the property sector shows no sign of genuine recovery. The bear case on the adequacy of stimulus is better supported by current fundamentals than the bull case.

The confidence qualifier matters, though. If Monday’s GDP surprises to the upside, driven by anything other than exports alone, the calculus shifts. Watch retail sales and fixed-asset investment within the same data release. Those two figures will say more about whether Beijing needs to act than the headline growth rate will.

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