(Corrects day in first paragraph)
By Michael S. Derby
Jan 8 (Reuters) – Americans grew more worried about the job market in December even as anxieties over personal finances faded, while near-term inflation expectations increased, a report from the New York Federal Reserve showed on Thursday.
Respondents in the regional Fed bank’s latest Survey of Consumer Expectations said the prospect of finding a job if unemployed was the worst since the report began in 2013. The worries about getting a new job were led by households that earned under $100,000 per year.
Job market anxieties were uneven in the final month of 2025, the New York Fed said, as expectations that the unemployment rate would rise ebbed in December relative to the prior month, while the probability assigned to losing a job rose relative to November. The survey also found a lower probability of leaving a job voluntarily in December versus the prior month.
Amid the job market concerns, households marked up the near-term expected path of inflation, with the year-ahead projection moving up to 3.4% versus 3.2% in November. Three- and five-year-ahead expected inflation were both steady at 3% in December.
Because short-term inflation expectations can be volatile, U.S. central bank officials tend to put more weight on what’s happening with longer-term projections to gauge where inflation stands now. The year-ahead expected increase in inflation, however, coincides with a rise in price pressures due to the Trump administration’s tariff increases.
Many Fed officials expect those tariff impacts to abate this year, but they are closely watching inflation expectations data for evidence the public shares that confidence.
Speaking in late December, New York Fed President John Williams said projections of future inflation “remain well-anchored,” adding “this is something I watch closely, because well-anchored expectations are critical to ensuring low and stable inflation.”
The Fed cut its benchmark interest rate last month by a quarter of a percentage point to the 3.50%-3.75% range, in an effort to balance rising job market risks against inflation that is still well above the U.S. central bank’s 2% target.
Fed officials this year expect the unemployment rate will decline modestly from the 4.6% rate in November, amid evidence of a low-hire, low-fire job market. They also see moderating inflation pressures that will still leave price pressures above the central bank’s target.
The U.S. Labor Department is scheduled on Friday to release its monthly employment report for December.
HOUSEHOLDS MORE UPBEAT ABOUT THEIR FINANCIAL SITUATION
It’s unclear whether the Fed will be comfortable enough to cut rates again in 2026, although Philadelphia Fed President Anna Paulson said recently that if the economy meets her expectations, “then some modest further adjustments to the (federal) funds rate would likely be appropriate later in the year.”
The New York Fed survey found households were more upbeat about their current and expected financial situations in December, although they also reported that credit is growing harder to access. Expectations of missing a debt payment also rose last month to the highest level since April 2020, during the initial stages of the COVID-19 pandemic.
Survey respondents said they expected slightly higher income growth, with a decline in expected spending and earnings growth.
(Reporting by Michael S. Derby; Editing by Paul Simao)
About the Author
